The Carney Rowboat Versus the Trump Aircraft Carrier
By Peter Navarro | RealClearMarkets | September 10, 2026
This week, President Trump signed five proclamations that should end any illusion in Ottawa that this trade fight is a negotiation among equals. As of September 29, Canadian beer, wine, spirits, whey, molasses, and heavyweight motorcycles will not be taxed at the American border. Under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, they will be banned.
This is the lawful and entirely predictable consequence of a choice Prime Minister Mark Carney made three weeks ago. It will end very badly, not for America but for the Canadian economy and people.
Roughly three-quarters of everything Canada sells abroad, it sells to the United States. A country in that position launching a tariff war against its largest customer is a rowboat opening fire on an aircraft carrier. The carrier will notice. The rowboat will sink.
How did this happen? Let’s first eliminate the Carney sound bite that somehow the U.S. is picking on poor O Canada.
As defined by Section 338, Canada discriminates against American farmers, workers, and businesses. On April 9, 2025, in retaliation for President Trump’s Section 232 auto tariffs, Ottawa imposed a 25 percent surtax on U.S. vehicles that do not qualify under USMCA, and a 25 percent surtax on the non-North American content of vehicles that do.
The discriminatory surtax applies to American-made vehicles only. Not Japanese. Not Korean. Not German. Not Mexican. The result was as Carney intended: U.S. motor vehicle exports to Canada fell roughly 22 percent while exports from every one of those other countries rose.
A month earlier, Canadian provinces had pulled American beer, wine, and bourbon off their government-run store shelves and left the French wine and Scotch whisky right where they were. U.S. alcohol exports to Canada collapsed by roughly 81 percent.
On dairy, the discrimination is older still. Since USMCA took effect in 2020, Canada has rigged its cheese import quotas so European producers get the access and American dairy farmers get the crumbs.
On July 20 of this year, President Trump responded under Section 338 with 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods, set to take effect August 19. Then came the part the double-dealing Carney would like everyone to forget.