By Peter Navarro | RealClearMarkets | April 14, 2026
March’s producer price report is another reminder that not all inflation is created equal. A commodity-driven jump tied largely to energy is one thing. A generalized inflationary breakout across goods, services, and margins is something very different. This report looks much more like an energy-driven shock than a broad inflationary resurgence.
Yes, headline producer prices rose 0.5 percent in March. But that increase came in well below expectations, and the details matter far more than the top-line number.
The real story is the same one we have been seeing across several recent reports. The loudest price moves remain concentrated in volatile, non-core categories, while the underlying inflation trend is more subdued than the professional pessimists and tariff bashers want to admit.
Start with goods. Final demand goods prices were strong in March, but that jump was driven overwhelmingly by energy. Food prices actually fell, and goods excluding food and energy rose only modestly. In other words, strip out the geopolitical and commodity noise, and the goods pipeline still looks relatively well behaved.
Then look at services. Final demand services were flat on the month. Even more telling, trade services margins — one of the better proxies for wholesaler and retailer markups — fell again. That is not what an inflation spiral looks like. That is what easing margin pressure looks like.
Most important, core producer prices rose only modestly and came in below expectations. On a year-over-year basis, core remains elevated but far from runaway. That is hardly ideal, but it is also nowhere near the kind of broad-based reacceleration that would justify the more apocalyptic commentary now filling too many headlines.
There is also a broader point here, and it fits squarely with the pattern we have seen in recent reports on CPI, trade, and manufacturing. Surface-level commentators keep grabbing the noisiest number in the release, ignoring the composition of the report, and forcing the data into a prewritten narrative about inflation, tariffs, and economic weakness.
That template keeps failing.