Four Economic Reports, One Message: No Fed Panic
By Peter Navarro | RealClearMarkets | June 25, 2026
The financial commentariat went into today’s economic-data dump looking for a reason to panic. The preferred storyline was obvious before the numbers even hit: inflation is back, the Fed is behind the curve, and rate hikes are coming.
That is not what the data say.
Today delivered a full suite of economic indicators: the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, the third estimate of first-quarter GDP, durable-goods orders, and weekly jobless claims. Taken together, they point to a much more disciplined conclusion. Inflation remains elevated, but the shock is still heavily energy-led. Growth is holding firm. Business investment remains strong. The labor market is not collapsing. And there are no alarm bells here that justify raising interest rates into the teeth of an oil-price shock.
Start with PCE inflation. The headline PCE price index rose 0.4 percent in May, below expectations of 0.5 percent. Over the past year, headline PCE inflation rose 4.1 percent, up from 3.8 percent in April. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3 percent for the month and 3.4 percent over the year.
That is not an all-clear report. Core inflation remains above the Fed’s target, and no serious analyst should pretend otherwise. But the policy question is not whether inflation is above target. The policy question is what kind of inflation this is — and whether a rate hike would cure it or merely punish consumers and businesses for enduring it.